Susan J. Demas: Hot in Cleveland: How Politicos Survived and Thrived at the Republican National Convention

National conventions are supposed to be a blast. The parties are nonstop and so are the libations. And if you’re brave enough to peek at Craigslist, you’ll find plenty of folks coming into town with some, well, fascinating interests.

The RNC, 1980

For many political activists, letting loose for a few days in a new city is the ultimate reward for knocking all those doors, stuffing all those envelopes and making endless calls begging people for money.

But there was an unmistakable sense of foreboding heading into this week’s Republican National Convention in Cleveland, thanks to presidential nominee Donald Trump’s penchant for outlandish statements and alienating allies. Activists from across the political spectrum, including white supremacist groups, vowed to descend. The Michigan State Police even dispatched more than 150 troopers to help with security.

Popular Ohio Gov. John Kasich –– who probably would have won the presidential election in a walk –– announced early on he wouldn’t even be going. No living Republican president attended, either.

Trump had trouble filling speaking slots –– a virtually unheard-of problem, as most politicians would gladly knock over their grandmother in a walker to get a few minute on Fox News. At least his wife and kids said “yes,” as did actor Scott Baio, who was last relevant during the era of Aquanet and parachute pants.

Of course, GOP activists and donors enjoyed the circus. Party conventions are always about showmanship and indulging the extremes (just read the party platforms, yeesh). So in that sense, it was fitting to honor the man best known for flash-and-burn antics like “Trump: The Game” and several (now-bankrupt) Atlantic City casinos.

Now that, and his dizzyingly incomprehensible governing agenda, don’t inspire much confidence in his ability to run the most powerful nation on earth –– but that’s a different story.

So it’s not surprising that many risk-averse Michigan Republican politicians like Gov. Rick Snyder took a pass on the RNC. We’re a swing state and the state House hangs in the balance this year. For many, all the free booze in the world wasn’t worth being associated with controversy.

But for those who did make the trek to Cleveland, here’s what they needed to do to have a successful convention:

• Don’t talk about Trump, unless you’re from a blood-red district. Fortunately, we have plenty of those –– about three dozen in the state House alone. (If you represent a lot of evangelicals in West Michigan, you still may be safer steering clear of the thrice-married, formerly pro-choice nominee). Anyway, who wants to be defending Trump’s latest rant against a Latino judge or his retweet of a neo-Nazi? And avoiding Trump talk has a huge upside. It frees politicians can talk about their favorite subject: themselves.

• Throw your own shindig. That’s what two potential 2018 gubernatorial candidates did. Lt. Gov. Brian Calley may be a teetotaler, but he knows many of his supporters aren’t. So the LG, who’s been known to rock out on the keyboard at several bars, held a party at the House of Blues. Attorney General Bill Schuette hosted his own soiree the same day at The Viaducts, complete with food trucks featuring comfort food like mac and cheese and bratwurst (Schuette: He’s just like us!). Of course, the AG also had the benefit of earning a Monday afternoon RNC speaking slot. While that’s not worth much in airtime, it gives him big bragging rights. Holding their own functions give politicians the chance to make the convention about them (not you-know-who), gladhand donors and make party activists feel special. It’s a smart play if you can afford it.

• Solemnly declare the need for party unity. Say it loud; say it proud. Say it even if you don’t believe it (especially if you don’t). Playing the statesman role is always a winner with the media –– and the bar is absurdly low these days. And if you did your part to change the narrative from “Chaos in Cleveland” and “Trump-ageddon,” donors won’t soon forget it.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Do Campaigns Matter? The Clinton-Trump Election Puts this Theory to the Test

Most of the time, the 2016 presidential campaign feels like a bad dream.

Instead of hearkening back to Ronald Reagan’s inspiring “Morning in America” theme, presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump darkly warns voters, “We are a divided nation,” while only promising more division with his Muslim ban and anti-immigrant policies.

For the first time in our nation’s 240-year history, a major party is on the cusp of nominating a woman for president. But Hillary Clinton’s clumsiness and arrogance in her email scandal has damaged her, and Bernie Sanders piled on by appealing to white male voters who not-so-secretly aren’t crazy about having a female leader of the free world. (Hey, they already showed they were progressive by voting for Barack Obama, and besides, Hillary sounds an awful lot like their nagging wives and mothers).

But this election also seems like a grand political science experiment.

In the GOP primary, Trump defied easily distracted pundits, but also “broke political science,” in the words of Washington sage Taegen Goddard. Candidates aren’t supposed to be able to win nominations by retweeting neo-Nazis, talking about their manhood (i.e. their “most beautiful hands”) and accusing Fox News goddess Megyn Kelly of having “blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever.”

And yet Trump did win, fairly decisively. But the brash billionaire wouldn’t have been able to gain traction if conservatives hadn’t embraced outré rhetoric and showmanship on talk radio and Fox News for decades. In the end, Trump’s savaging of liberals and supposed sacred cows like racial minorities proved more potent to voters than the other candidates’ fealty to conservative doctrine.

Naturally, Trump’s antics haven’t played nearly as well in the general election, as he must appeal to a far broader and more diverse electorate.

There’s a reason why smart Republicans continue to bemoan the fact that Marco Rubio or John Kasich aren’t at the top of the ticket. Internal polling showed that either of them would win this election in a walk, as voters are looking for change after a Democratic president for the last eight years. Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, embodies change and is a soaring orator. Kasich has a moderate reputation and has successfully run Ohio, the ultimate bellwether state.

But both of them were ruthlessly outflanked by Trump in the primary, where he dominated nearly every news cycle. That hasn’t turned out as well for him since clinching the nomination, however. While a segment of the conservative base defended Trump’s recent crude tweet bashing Clinton as corrupt –– complete with a star of David and a pile of cash –– the overall backlash was swift and brutal.

Now I’m skeptical that this election –– or any nearly any election –– will turn on a gaffe. But what I am watching, as are political scientists, is if campaign infrastructure makes a difference.

Candidates spent millions on ads, consultants to help with messaging and field staff for get-out-the-vote efforts. But so far, only Clinton is using this playbook, whereas Trump continues to bank on earned (free) media to pull him through.

Clinton’s field operation in battleground states like Ohio has put Trump’s to shame. Even in traditionally blue Michigan, Clinton is planning to hire 200 field staff, which should mollify nervous Democrats who think Trump’s anti-trade and racial resentment rhetoric could help him win here. She’s bringing on some top talent, like Walt Herzig, U.S. Rep. Sandy Levin’s longtime district director, and Mitch Rivard, who’s helped U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee become a staple on the state and national media circuit.

Trump is instead relying on the Republican National Committee, which has 34 paid staffers in the Mitten State. The ground-game gulf could have big consequences for down-ballot races in Michigan –– most notably in the state House, where Democrats have to flip nine seats to take control.

Team Clinton is outspending Team Trump 15-to-1 in battleground state TV ads, $57 million to $4 million. It’s notable that Trump hasn’t spent a penny himself –– the ads are being run by outside groups like the National Rifle Association (NRA). And that only came after the Democrat had the airwaves to herself for weeks.

It’s the same story for fundraising. As of May 31, Clinton raised $229 million to Trump’s $63 million. But the eye-popping figure is cash on hand. Clinton had $42 million to Trump’s $1.3 million.

Trump, who (falsely) bragged he was self-funding his GOP primary campaign, has now been revving up a more traditional fundraising apparatus. This hasn’t gone smoothly, as one of his fundraising emails hit 60 percent of spam folders, Politico reports. Trump did amass $51 million in June, but that was still dwarfed by Clinton’s $69 million –– and Trump has yet to disclose how much is left in the bank.

Trump also can’t expect to rely on third-party groups as much as previous nominees, like Mitt Romney, when many donors remain skeptical and are investing heavily in keeping the GOP majority in the U.S. Senate.

There’s still roughly four months until Election Day. Perhaps Trump will close the gap on fundraising, field staff and advertising. And perhaps he can still win without doing so.

If so, Trump will usher in a sea change for how political campaigns are run in America.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Schuette Vs. Snyder: How the AG Is Maneuvering to Be Michigan’s Next Governor

The conventional wisdom is that Michigan will have a Democratic governor on January 1, 2019.

Dave Trumpie/Dome Magazine

Term-limited Gov. Rick Snyder –– who squeaked by in his ‘14 re-election fight, which Republicans openly wondered if he was trying to lose –– is now the third-least popular governor in the country. He’s taken hits over his administration’s callousness and incompetence over the Flint water crisis.

But that wouldn’t have wounded him so deeply if voters were enamored with his business tax cuts, roads plan and education policy. The truth is, the bloom has been off the rose for awhile. This isn’t unique to Snyder; it’s typical of many second-term governors. What isn’t clear is what Snyder can do to bounce back.

Naturally, Democrats are thrilled at the prospect of ‘18 being a referendum on Snyder. Their two likeliest nominees, U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) and interim Ingham County Prosecutor Gretchen Whitmer, are chomping at the bit.

Snyder’s unenviable numbers put any would-be Republican successor in a bind. It’s not difficult to see why there’s little enthusiasm for a Lt. Gov. Brian Calley candidacy, even though the 39-year-old has made it clear that he expects to live in the governor’s mansion one day.

You would think Attorney General Bill Schuette would be similarly hamstrung. After all, he’s appeared on the GOP ticket with Snyder for the past two elections. He’s also known as being even more conservative than the governor, which isn’t the kind of change Michigan voters would typically endorse after tiring of Snyder.

But Schuette just may be able to pull this off.

This week, he stood with teachers and broke with Snyder. After the Court of Appeals ordered the governor to return $550 million to school employees to fund retirement health care, Schuette announced he wouldn’t defend Snyder if he appealed to the Michigan Supreme Court –– knowing full well that the stubborn governor would do exactly that.

Yes, Bill Schuette –– the toast of the Tea Party who’s fought same-sex marriage, Obamacare and affirmative action right up to the Supreme Court –– just did a solid for a core Democratic constituency. He veered left without breaking a sweat. (Sure, he argued the case was unwinnable, but let’s not forget that didn’t dissuade him on marriage equality).

Most importantly, Schuette knew he would earn headlines for his chilly relationship with Snyder. This comes on the heels of the AG’s very public rebuke of the administration’s lack of cooperation in his Flint investigation.

This is hardly a recent development. Last year, Schuette came out against Snyder’s roads tax hike known as Proposal 1. The AG also fought for pensioners’ rights during the Detroit bankruptcy.

In fact, Snyder and Schuette have chafed from the get-go, as have their staffs (notably, Schuette’s team hasn’t changed much, whereas Snyder’s front office has been somewhat of a revolving door).

Part of the tension is organic. The two men come from very different backgrounds, aside from being high-achieving lawyers and proud dads.

Snyder is a new-money venture capitalist who never ran for office before jumping into a self-funded gubernatorial bid. Schuette is a country-club Republican and accordingly, has been loath to rely on his family fortune throughout his lengthy career in government, as a congressman, Agriculture Department Director, state senator, judge and finally AG.

The differences are more than skin deep. As someone who spent his career in the business tech world, Snyder is disdainful of crass campaigning, political horse-trading and the lumbering pace of government (hence his now-faded motto of “working in dog years.”)

Schuette, on the other hand, genuinely enjoys the coffee klatch circuit and cutting political deals. He believes deeply in public service, as do his ever-loyal advisers, which is why he’s devoted his life to it. For Snyder, being governor is just phase two of his storied career before he goes into academia (where he will, no doubt, declare that the institution needs a Snyder-style wholesale reimagining –– call it “College 3.0”).

It’s also worth noting that the interests of the governor and attorney general aren’t always in sync, even when they’re both from the same party. The AG is the people’s lawyer, not the governor’s personal attorney.

But Schuette most likely did make the calculation back in 2010 that he’d need to craft a separate persona from Snyder to secure his own future. It’s not that he expected a Michigan city to be poisoned –– no one did. This is just what adroit political animals do.

After all, the AG couldn’t be tied at the hip to a failed governor if Snyder lost in 2014. On the other hand, if the governor was re-elected, Calley would then be the logical choice for those hungering for a third Snyder term. And if Snyder fell from grace in later years, the Democrats would have the upper hand in 2018, making it critical for Republicans to have an untarnished nominee.

Indeed, Schuette will have to be his own man in order to escape the Snyder stain. It’s a perilously narrow path that boasts few recent success stories. John McCain came close in 2008 –– his disdain for George W. Bush was certainly real –– but just being a Republican was enough to do him in.

Can Schuette really expect to fare any better? All I know is that people underestimate the attorney general at their own peril.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Kildee in the Catbird Seat: The Flint Congressman Moves toward a Gubernatorial Bid

Anyone who thinks U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee isn’t running for governor in 2018 isn’t paying attention.

It’s not a done deal that he’s in, of course. There are 865 days left between now and Nov. 6, 2018. (A decade ago, no one would be focused on an election almost two and a half years out, but welcome to the era of the perpetual campaign).

Any number of unforeseen circumstances –– personal or political –– could cause Kildee to change his mind. And it’s worth noting that he does occupy a safe Democratic congressional seat in Flint, which could look a lot more inviting if 2018 starts shaping up to be another Democratic off-year bloodbath.

But Kildee is clearly sending signals that he’s a serious contender. As someone who hails from a top political family in Flint, who first won elective office at age 18, Kildee knows exactly what he’s doing.

This week Hillary Clinton tapped Kildee’s deputy chief of staff and communications director, Mitchell Rivard, as her Michigan communications director. Though in the works for awhile, the announcement came on the day a likely 2018 rival, Gretchen Whitmer, was sworn in as Ingham County prosecutor.

The move isn’t a huge surprise. If you look carefully at Clinton’s statements during the primary about the Flint water crisis –– which remains a national symbol of our crumbling infrastructure –– the language and arguments are strikingly similar to Kildee’s.

This move means that Rivard, who’s set to return to Kildee’s staff after the election, will be a top player in a critical statewide election, privy to up-to-the minute election data and polling. That’s a boon to Kildee’s nascent gubernatorial campaign. Not to mention that forging such close ties with the woman who’s likely the next president of the United States (as the odds stand now) is invaluable.

Kildee naturally has been laying the groundwork months before this announcement. Circumstances have thrust him into the state and national spotlight, as he’s railed against the poisoning of Flint water and fought for the release of former Marine Amir Hekmati from an Iranian prison. But Kildee, thanks in no small part to Rivard’s media savvy, has managed to come off as a concerned public servant, not an exploitative, cynical pol. (That’s irked Republicans to no end, who insist he’s overplaying his hand).

At the same time, Kildee has been talking with Democratic powerbrokers –– elected officials, donors, longtime operatives and interest groups –– behind the scenes. He’s definitely made inroads with some unions and allies of former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer, the last Dem gubernatorial nominee, look ready to join the fight. Kildee has also appeared at Dem fundraisers across the state, from Holt to Leland, which are decidedly outside the 5th congressional district.

In a long interview with Inside Michigan Politics (right before hobnobbing at the the Mackinac Policy Conference), the congressman finally announced he’s mulling a gubernatorial campaign.

He tried out some attack lines against Gov. Rick Snyder, knowing that the election will be a referendum on his policies, especially in Flint. Kildee repeatedly argued that Michigan has fallen behind in infrastructure, education and urban development in “the last half decade.” For those keeping score at home, that’s effectively flipping Republicans’ highly effective theme that former Gov. Jennifer Granholm plunged us into a decade-long recession (which actually began over a year before she took office).

Kildee also took a shot at the Republican most visibly vying to succeed Snyder, Attorney General Bill Schuette. Kildee, a strong proponent of same-sex marriage, declared it was “incredible” that Schuette would “actually sue the federal government to prevent Michigan citizens from rights that they have long sought and finally achieved.” Kildee is willing to take the fight right to Schuette, even over an issue that has only enjoyed majority support in Michigan for a few years.

When asked about Whitmer, Kildee was complimentary. He gracefully drew a comparison to the Hillary Clinton-Bernie Sanders primary, noting that such contests don’t have to get ugly and actually strengthen the party.

Perhaps the most salient argument against Kildee’s candidacy is a crude one: Democrats don’t need to nominate another white guy. But Kildee isn’t just any white guy. He hails from Flint, which is still the eye of the storm in Michigan.

He’ll be running as the anti-Snyder –– which is exactly what the Democratic base craves. Any serious Democratic contender will try to campaign on that theme. But who gets it more than someone who lives in Flint and has had a ringside view into the destruction Snyder has wrought?

That may just be Kildee’s ace in the hole.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Ready for its Closeup? Libertarians Court the #NeverTrump and #NeverHillary Crowds

Gary Johnson

This column appeared in Dome Magazine.

ORLANDO –– In between taking the kids to Disney World and cooling off from the 90-degree heat in the pool last weekend, I had fun the only way I know how.

I spent some time with folks attending the Libertarian National Convention.

With Donald Trump as the presumptive Republican nominee, the Libertarian Party has sparked a lot more interest from conservative voters desperately searching for an alternative. Even some disaffected Bernie Sanders supporters may jump ship if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, as is widely expected.

On Sunday, Libertarian vice presidential nominee William Weld tried to appeal to the #NeverTrump and #NeverHillary crowds, which requires some serious ideological gymnastics.

“Anybody who’s economically responsible –– I won’t even say conservative –– and socially inclusive –– I won’t even say liberal — could be comfortable voting for us. That’s a lot of people,” Weld said at the convention.

So far, Libertarians aren’t having much luck with prominent Democrats, who are alienated by their isolationist, anti-tax and anti-social safety net platform, despite their liberalness on social issues and immigration. But rank-and-file Sanders supporters –– some of whom don’t have ties to the Democratic Party and believe (despite all evidence to the contrary) that the election is being stolen from him –– may be better targets.

There have already been a few Republican defections of note. Longtime GOP strategist Mary Matalin, a key adviser to former President George H.W. Bush, registered as a Libertarian this year, arguing the two-party system is failing. (She’s a charter member of the “Never Hillary” contingent, even as her husband, Democratic strategist James Carville, is a long-time Clinton loyalist).

Former Republican state Rep. Lorence Wenke is now running as a Libertarian in the 6th Congressional District against once-moderate U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). It’s a good fit, as Wenke’s big issues have always been cutting government retirement liabilities and supporting LGBT rights.

And, of course, the Libertarians just nominated two former moderate GOP governors for their presidential ticket: Gary Johnson of New Mexico* and Weld of Massachusetts.

Johnson, the 2012 presidential nominee who garnered 1 percent of the vote, has a longer history as a Libertarian. He follows the party line, railing against the national debt, foreign wars and government spending. But it’s his longtime pro-marijuana legalization stance that’s made him a cult figure and helped attract some younger supporters.

Weld, on the other hand, is a newcomer who took fire for being a big-government governor who supported gun-control measures (apparently, Libertarians don’t spend much time in Massachusetts, where that’s exactly what voters want). But he was certainly the most prominent VP pick and Libertarians decided to be practical, nominating him on the second ballot.

The two major headlines from the convention underscore the two paths Libertarians can take in 2016.

The first is that a Johnson/Weld ticket could finally push the party into the mainstream. Johnson took 10 percent in a recent Fox News survey and there’s hope he could eventually hit 15 percent, the threshold needed to appear on the national debate stage (assuming Trump agrees after another likely round of irrational demands aimed at cable news coverage).

Prominent Republicans like U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) have already championed libertarian economic principles, which has won them a wider audience. (Unlike true libertarians, these Republicans are cheerful big-government backers when it comes to restrictions on abortion and LGBT rights, however). 

But the second big story was Libertarian Party chair candidate James Weeks doing a striptease (yes, set to music), which, naturally, went viral. That’s the wacky Libertarian Party most of us know and love. One of the biggest running media jokes was that there were more people in Chewbacca costumes at the convention than at the new “Star Wars” attractions at Disney (for the record, that wasn’t true).

Regardless, it’s not clear that the Libertarian Party is ready for its closeup yet. At a recent presidential debate, Johnson was booed for supporting driver licenses and the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Those are eminently mainstream positions –– but they are in conflict with doctrinaire libertarianism.

To really make an impact in this election, Libertarians would probably have to become “Republican Lite,” which could alienate the party faithful. And that still doesn’t win over far-left Sanders supporters.

Building a major political party in America is tougher than it looks.

* Corrected

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.